South Asian Peoples' role in tackling environmental conflicts and the climate crisis

South Asian nations cannot meet environmental challenges except through cooperation, which has been elusive. How can the South Asian people, the risk bearers of environmental degradation, prevail on their governments to cooperate?

Conflicts over water sharing in rivers that flow across national boundaries are common, e.g., Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Jordan, Indus, and Teesta. These conflicts go through three phases. In the first phase, there is sufficient water for people on both sides of the border. In the second phase when water demand rises and disputes arise, to avoid conflict an adjudicator or arbiter makes an award to each country, e.g., as in the Indus water treaty. In the third phase water demand increases further and the countries disregard previous awards/agreements and militarise the conflict. This has happened over the Jordan River waters. There is a high risk of serious conflict arising over the water sharing of the Indus and other trans-national rivers.

There is transboundary movement of air pollutants (oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter) happening in South Asia. These pollutants pose long-term risks to humans and the environment, e.g., soil corrosion, crop yield loss, acidification of water bodies leading to loss of aquatic ecology and fish, forest diebacks, corrosion of old structures such as monuments, and increase in respiratory illnesses.

What recommendations should South Asian people make to avoid conflicts that may arise due to water sharing and the transport of transboundary air pollutants?

South Asia is one of two regions that will be hit hardest by global warming. It has a quarter of the world’s population but has emitted only 3.6% of the world’s cumulative emissions (1750 to date). Sea rise will submerge all of the Maldives and 20% of Bangladesh’s land mass by 2100. By then,  100 million Bangladeshis and all 500 thousand Maldivians will become climate refugees. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will face severe water stress within 2-3 decades. The Himalayan region will experience glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), as happened in Sikkim recently. India will be affected by extreme weather events (very high temperature and rainfall events causing severe heat stress and floods), sea rise, GLOFs, risk to food and water security, etc.

Environmental justice requires the Global North to acknowledge responsibility for emitting 70% of the cumulative emissions and agree to share equitably the benefits and risks that the use of fossil fuels has caused.

How must South Asia cooperate to tackle the climate crisis and seek climate justice?

Report on the workshop titled "South Asian Peoples' Role in Tackling Environmental Conflicts and the Climate Crisis" conducted as an event in the World Social Forum, Kathmandu on 17 February 2024

Introduction

South Asia faces three environmental challenges that have the potential to cause conflict between countries—inter-state river water sharing, transboundary transport of air pollution that may cause adverse impacts across borders, and the climate crisis.

South Asian nations cannot meet environmental challenges except by cooperating, which has been elusive. How can the South Asian people, the risk bearers of environmental degradation, prevail on their governments to cooperate?

About 50 persons from different South Asian countries discussed issues about their role in tackling potential environmental conflicts and the impacts of the climate crisis in South Asia and made concrete recommendations to make a beginning in tackling these issues. This meeting was held on 17 February 2024 in the World Social Forum (WSF) conclave in Kathmandu. This meeting was organized by the South Asia People’s Friendship Association and was co-sponsored by the Centre for Peace and Secular Studies

Potential environmental conflicts in South Asia

Conflicts over inter-state river water sharing are common, e.g., Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Jordan, Indus, and Teesta. Conflicts occur as the ecological boundaries of the water basins and administrative boundaries do not coincide. Conflicts go through three phases. In the first phase, there is sufficient water for people on both sides of the border. In the second phase when water demand rises and disputes arise, to avoid conflict an adjudicator or arbiter makes an award to each country, e.g., as in the Indus water treaty. In the third phase water demand increases further and the countries disregard previous awards/agreements and militarise the conflict. This has happened over the Jordan River waters. There is a high risk of serious conflict arising over the water sharing of the Indus and other trans-national rivers such as the Teesta, Kosi, and Brahmaputra.

Transboundary transport of air pollutants (oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, ozone and particulate matter) poses a risk to South Asia. These pollutants pose a long-term danger to humans and the environment, e.g., soil corrosion, crop yield loss, acidification of water bodies leading to loss of aquatic ecology and fish, forest diebacks, corrosion of old structures such as monuments, and increase in respiratory illnesses.

Primary Climate Impacts in South Asia

South Asia is one of two regions that will be hardest hit by global warming. It has a quarter of the world’s population but has emitted only 3.6% of the world’s cumulative emissions (1750 to date). Sea rise will submerge the Maldives and 20% of Bangladesh’s land mass by 2100. By then, 100 million Bangladeshis and all 500 thousand Maldivians will become climate refugees. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will face severe water stress within 2-3 decades. The Himalayan region will experience glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), as happened in Sikkim recently. India will be affected by extreme weather events (very high temperature and rainfall events causing severe heat stress and floods), sea rise, GLOFs, risk to food and water security, etc.

Environmental justice requires the Global North to acknowledge responsibility for emitting 70% of the cumulative emissions and agree to share equitably the benefits and risks that the use of fossil fuels has caused.

Climate crisis impacts have the potential to cause conflicts between neighbouring nations. If upper riparian countries have heavy rainfall in catchment areas and open the dam floodgates to relieve pressure, lower riparian countries may be flooded and blame the upper riparian countries for the floods.

Recommendations

The following recommendations were made to reduce environmental conflicts and engender greater cooperation to mitigate the impacts of the climate crisis in South Asia.

• Alternative development models that may decrease potential environmental conflict should be discussed. Such discussions should be done both by experts and by the public. It should be ensured that upstream polluting industries should strictly follow environmental regulations.

• Do’s and Don’ts to avoid environmental conflicts should be devised for development pathways.

• The formation of a South Asian Union would help reduce potential environmental conflicts and engender greater cooperation among South Asian nations to tackle the climate crisis.

• Youth should be mobilized to engender greater cooperation between South Asian nations.

• A list of points should be prepared for the people of South Asia to lobby with their respective governments to reduce environmental conflicts and increase cooperation in tackling the climate crisis.

• A method for monitoring potential environmental conflicts and cooperation on environmental programmes should be devised.

• Climate and peace should be the theme of this effort.

• The sharing of natural resources by South Asian nations should be done equitably.

• A brief document explaining the need for cooperation between South Asian nations to minimize potential environmental conflicts and tackle the climate crisis should be published and distributed widely in South Asia.

• The need to create a basic organization for South Asians to cooperate on environmental issues, including its funding, should be discussed in the next meeting. Funding should be minimal and should be free of all influences, including that of governments and funding agencies.

• Four resolutions were circulated in this meeting but were not voted upon for lack of time.